Thoughts and Facts on the 2012 Presidential Election

The buildup to the Presidential election has begun, and seven GOP candidates have thrown their hats into the ring, among them such political heavyweights as Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul. The frontrunner seems to be Romney, although his strong faith grounded in Mormonism may not win him any favors from the Far Right.

This post is not about who I think is the best GOP candidate; this post is about why I don't think it will matter. There are a few key components that will affect the 2012 Election and whether Barack Obama will be re-elected.

The first and most important thing will be the unemployment rate, which, according to google public data, is sitting at 8.7% across the country. According to the same chart, the unemployment rate was 8.5% in January 2009, the month Obama took office. This chart will tell the story of the election; if unemployment goes up, Obama's job approval rating will lower and the Republican candidate's chances will go up.

Second in importance will be money. In the 2008 election, John McCain raised over $300 million for his campaign, both the general and the primary elections combined. This number would have been a new all-time record for most money raised. However, Barack Obama raised over $700 million for his campaign, doubling McCain's total and raising not only an unprecedented amount of money, but at least doubling every previous candidate's fundraising total.

Obviously, this huge advantage in finances gave Obama an advantage in advertising, media, and paid employees. There is a program that has been in place since 2002, called BCRA, that is meant to try and stem this kind of huge fundraising. The system is already broken, as no major candidate (with the exception of John Edwards I believe) chose to accept the public funding that BCRA provides.

Expect Obama to raise at least in the neighborhood of $700 million as he did last time, and what candidate can stop him from winning the reelection? This financial disadvantage hurt McCain badly in 2008.

The Republicans need to find a candidate that they can all rally around and one that is well known, and the field, right now, looks a little weak. If Romney gains the support of the entire party, he might be able to procure the funds to match Obama's. Otherwise, it looks unlikely that Obama will lose, barring a catastrophic event under the current administration or the unemployment rate steadily worsening.